Nassim Nicholas Taleb
| Nassim Nicholas Taleb | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Umumiy maʼlumotlar | |
| Tavalludi |
1960-yil 12-sentyabr Amioun |
| Qardosh loyihalar | |
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (talaffuzi: Nassim Nikolas Taleb; 1960-yil 12-sentyabrda tugʻilgan) – amerikalik essenavis, statistik, aforist va sobiq treyder.
Iqtiboslar
[tahrirlash]Mening asosiy xobbim — oʻzini va oʻz bilimining sifatini haddan tashqari jiddiy qabul qiladigan hamda baʼzida „Bilmayman...“ deyishga jurʼati yetmaydigan odamlarning gʻashiga tegishdir.
My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously and those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know....
Siz dunyoni oʻzgartira olmasligingiz mumkin, lekin hech boʻlmaganda insoniyatning epistemik kibridan biroz zavq olishingiz va shu ortidan tirikchilik qilishingiz mumkin.
You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment and make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race.
Hozirda xavf-xatardan qochish mexanizmimiz miyamizning kognitiv modullari emas, balki koʻproq hissiy modullari orqali boshqarilishi ilmiy konsensus hisoblanadi. Bu bizni Pleistotsen davri uchun moslashtirgan boʻlishi mumkin. Bizning xavf-xatar mexanizmimiz yoʻlbarslardan qochishga moʻljallangan; u axborot bilan toʻlib-toshgan zamonaviy dunyo uchun moʻljallanmagan.
It is now the scientific consensus that our risk-avoidance mechanism is not mediated by the cognitive modules of our brain, but rather by the emotional ones. This may have made us fit for the Pleistocene era. Our risk machinery is designed to run away from tigers; it is not designed for the information-laden modern world.
Insonning xavf-xatardan qochish mexanizmini oʻrganuvchi koʻplab tadqiqotlar uning eskirganini va zamonaviy dunyoga mos kelmasligini koʻrsatadi; u takrorlanuvchi hujumlarga qarshi turish va muayyan vaziyatlardan saboq olishga moʻljallangan. Agar kimdir maʼlum bir gʻorda yoʻlbarsga yem boʻlishdan zoʻrgʻa qutulib qolsa, u oʻsha gʻorga yaqinlashmaslikni oʻrganadi.
Much of the research into humans' risk-avoidance machinery shows that it is antiquated and unfit for the modern world; it is made to counter repeatable attacks and learn from specifics. If someone narrowly escapes being eaten by a tiger in a certain cave, then he learns to avoid that cave.
Biz odamlarni imkonsiz narsalar haqida oʻylaganliklari uchun masxara qilishimiz emas, balki mukofotlashimiz kerak.
We should reward people, not ridicule them, for thinking the impossible.
Fooled by Randomness (2001)
[tahrirlash]Maslahat berish xatti-harakatlarimizni hissiy mexanizmimiz emas, balki kognitiv apparatimiz muayyan darajada nazorat qiladi degan farazga tayanadi.
Delivering advice assumes that our cognitive apparatus rather than our emotional machinery exerts some meaningful control over our actions.
Agar muvaffaqiyatsizlik koʻtarib boʻlmas darajada qimmatga tushsa, biror narsaning qanchalik tez-tez muvaffaqiyat qozonishi hech qanday ahamiyatga ega emas.
It does not matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear.
Treyding insonni chuqur fikrlashga majbur qiladi; shunchaki qattiq mehnat qiladiganlar esa odatda diqqat-eʼtiborini va intellektual quvvatini yoʻqotadilar. Bundan tashqari, ular oqibatda tasodifiylik girdobiga gʻarq boʻladilar; mehnat etikasi odamlarni asosiy signalga emas, balki shovqinga diqqat qaratishga undaydi.
Trading forces someone to think hard; those who merely work hard generally lose their focus and intellectual energy. In addition, they end up drowning in randomness; work ethics draw people to focus on noise rather than the signal.
Oʻrtacha muvaffaqiyatni koʻnikma va mehnat bilan tushuntirish mumkin. Ulkan muvaffaqiyat esa tasodifiylikka (variatsiyaga) bogʻliqdir.
Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.
Omadli ahmoqlar oʻzlarining shunchaki omadli ahmoq ekanliklaridan zarracha ham shubha qilmaydilar — taʼrifiga koʻra, ular bunday toifaga mansub ekanliklarini bilmaydilar.
Lucky fools do not bear the slightest suspicion that they may be lucky fools - by definition, they do not know that they belong to such a category.
Qoidalari aniq belgilangan rus ruletkasida oltiga koʻpaytirish va boʻlishni biladigan har bir kishi xavfni yaqqol koʻra oladi, biroq real hayotda inson voqelikning „toʻpponcha barabani“ni koʻra olmaydi.
Unlike a well-defined, precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality.
Epik shoir qahramonlarga erishgan natijalariga qarab baho bermagan... ularning qismati butunlay tashqi kuchlarga bogʻliq edi... Qahramonlar gʻalaba qozonganlari yoki magʻlub boʻlganlari uchun emas, balki xatti-harakatlari qahramonona boʻlgani tufayli qahramondirlar.
[T]he epic poet did not judge heroes by the result... their fate depended on totally external forces... Heroes are heroes because they are heroic in behavior, not because they won or lost.
Prognoz va bashoratgoʻylikni aralashtirib yuborish — tasodifiylik keltirib chiqaradigan ahmoqlik alomatidir...
Mixing forecast and prophecy is symptomatic of randomness-foolishness...
Vaj-dalillarni imkon qadar soddalashtirish kerakligiga eʼtirozim yoʻq... biroq odamlar koʻpincha mediabop qolipga solib soddalashtirib boʻlmaydigan murakkab gʻoyalarni chalkash fikrlash mahsuli deb yanglish tushunishadi. ...MBA egalari moliya bozorlarida kasodga uchrashga moyil boʻlishadi, chunki ularga hamma narsani meʼyoridan... ortiq... soddalashtirish oʻrgatilgan. (...mening oʻzim ham ushbu darajaning baxtsiz sohibiman.)
I do not dispute that arguments should be simplified to their maximum... but people often confuse complex ideas that cannot be simplified into a media-friendly statement as symptomatic of a confused mind. ...MBAs tend to blow up in financial markets, as they are trained to simplify... beyond... requirement. (...I am myself the unhappy holder of the degree.)
Inson ongining ehtimollikni idrok etish tizimi shov-shuvlarga shu qadar moyilki, yangiliklardan butunlay voz kechish orqali axborot borasida koʻproq yutuqqa erishish mumkin.
[T]he mental probabilistic map in one's mind is so geared toward the sensational that one would realize informational gains by dispensing with the news.
Muassasa nuqtai nazaridan, risk menejerining mavjudligi xavf-xatarni amalda kamaytirishdan koʻra, koʻproq xavf kamayganligi haqida taassurot uygʻotishga xizmat qiladi.
From the standpoint of an institution, the existence of a risk manager has less to do with actual risk reduction than it has to do with the impression of risk reduction.
1990-yillarning boshlarida... men oʻzim mustaqil ravishda yaratishni oʻrgangan turli Monte-Karlo tizimlariga bogʻlanib qoldim... Kompyuter inqilobining bergan samarasi... elektron pochta xabarlari va... chat xonalarida namoyon boʻlmadi; u daqiqasiga millionlab tanlanma trayektoriyalarni hosil qilishga qodir boʻlgan tezkor protsessorlarning toʻsatdan foydalanishga tayyor boʻlib qolganida edi.
In the early 1990s... I became addicted to the various Monte Carlo engines, which I taught myself to build... The dividend of the computer revolution... did not come in... e-mail messages and... chat rooms; it was in the sudden availability of fast processors capable of generating a million sample paths per minute.
Modellarim yakunda deyarli hech kim haqiqatda omon qolmasligini koʻrsatdi; ralli paytida „ayiqlar“ pashshadek toʻkildi, „buqalar“ esa yakunda qirgʻinga uchradi... Ammo bitta istisno bor edi... opsion xaridorlari... ular kasodga uchrashga qarshi sugʻurta sotib olishlari mumkin edi...
My models showed that ultimately almost nobody really survived; bears dropped like flies in the rally and bulls ended up being slaughtered... But there was one exception... option buyers... could buy the insurance against blowup...
Menda tarixdan saboq olishning ikki yoʻli bor: oʻtmishdan — qadimgi donishmandlar mutolaasi orqali; hamda kelajakdan — oʻzimning Monte-Karlo „oʻyinchogʻim“ sharofati bilan.
I have two ways of learning from history: from the past, by reading the elders; and from the future, thanks to my Monte Carlo toy.
hindsight biasning... zararli oqibati shundaki, oʻtmishni „bashorat qilishda“ usta boʻlganlar... oʻzlarini kelajakni ham yaxshi bashorat qila oladigan deb oʻylashadi... Biz muhim voqealarni oldindan aytib boʻlmaydigan dunyoda yashaymiz...
A... vicious effect of... hindsight bias is that those that are good at predicting the past... think of themselves as good at predicting the future... [W]e live in a world where important events are not predictable...
Tarix ustida tajriba oʻtkazib boʻlmaydi. Biroq... u yakunda yomonlarni magʻlub etish uchun... yetarli darajada qudratlidir. Notoʻgʻri savdolar baribir sizni quvib yetadi... Ehtimollik matematiklari bunga... shunday nom berishgan: ergodiklik. Qoʻpol qilib aytganda... juda... uzun tanlanma trayektoriyasining xususiyatlari qisqaroq trayektoriyalar oʻrtacha qiymatining Monte-Karlo xususiyatlariga oʻxshash boʻladi. ...Mahorati boʻlsa-da, omadi kelmaganlar... yakunda baribir koʻtariladi. Omadli ahmoq esa... sekin-asta omadi kamroq chopgan tentak holatiga yaqinlashadi. Ularning har biri... oʻzining uzoq muddatli xususiyatlariga qaytadi.
[H]istory cannot lend itself to experimentation. But... is potent enough... to eventually bury the bad guy. Bad trades catch up with you... Mathematicians of probability give that a... name: ergodicity. [R]oughly... properties of a very... long sample path would be similar to the Monte Carlo properties of an average of shorter ones. ...Those unlucky... in spite of their skills would eventually rise. The lucky fool... would slowly converge to the state of a less-lucky idiot. Each ...would revert to his long-term properties.
Keksalik — goʻzallikdir. ...Mening ichki sezgim, yuzaki qaraganda qanchalik mukammal tuyulishidan qatʼi nazar, yangi fikrlardan koʻra sayqallangan gʻoyalarni koʻproq qadrlashga undaydi — bu karavotim yoniga koʻhna jildlarni yigʻishimning yana bir sababidir... Gʻoyaning shunchalik koʻp davrlardan omon oʻtgani uning nisbiy yashovchanligidan dalolat beradi. Shovqinlar, har holda ularning maʼlum bir qismi elab tashlangan. ...Taraqqiyot deganda baʼzi yangi maʼlumotlar oʻtmishdagisidan yaxshiroq ekani tushuniladi, yangi maʼlumotlarning oʻrtacha qiymati oʻtmishdagi bilimlarning oʻrnini bosishi emas...
[A]ge is beauty. ...[M]y instinct is to value distilled thought over newer thinking, regardless of its apparent sophistication—another reason to accumulate the hoary volumes by my bedside... For an idea to have survived so many cycles is indicative of its relative fitness. Noise, at least some noise, was filtered out. ...[P]rogress means that some new information is better than past information, not that the average of new information will supplant past information...
Chuqur fikrlaydigan jurnalistlar talaygina... Biroq yetakchi OAV jurnalistikasi shunchaki odamlar eʼtiborini tortadigan axborot shovqinini yetkazib berishdan iborat oʻylamasdan qilinadigan jarayondir va ularni bir-biridan ajratish mexanizmi mavjud emas.
There are hordes of thoughtful journalists... [I]t is just that prominent media journalism is a thoughtless process of providing the noise that captures people's attention and there exists no mechanism for separating the two.
Men... yoshi katta treyderlarni saralab olishda jiddiy afzallik koʻrdim; bunda tanlov mezoni sifatida ularning mutloq muvaffaqiyatidan koʻra, toʻplangan koʻp yillik tajribasiga tayandim... Yoshi kattaroq insonlar kamdan-kam roʻy beradigan hodisalarga uzoqroq vaqt davomida duch kelishgan, shu sababli ularning bunday xavflarga chidamliligi ancha ishonchli boʻlishi mumkin.
I... found a significant advantage in selecting aged traders, using as a selection criterion their cumulative years of experience rather than their absolute success... [O]lder people have been exposed longer to the rare event and can be, convincingly, more resistant to it.
Qisqa vaqt oraligʻida odam portfelning daromadliligini emas, oʻzgaruvchanligini kuzatadi. ...inson faqat dispersiyani koʻradi, boshqa deyarli hech narsani emas. ...Hissiyotlarimiz buni anglashga moslashmagan. ...Men buni axborotga kirish imkoniga ega boʻlmaslik orqali hal qilaman. ...Sheʼriyat oʻqishni afzal koʻraman.
Over a short time increment, one observes the variability of the portfolio, not the returns. ...[O]ne sees the variance, little else. ...Our emotions are not designed to understand the point. ...I deal with it by having no access to information. ...I prefer to read poetry.
Yangiliklar... shovqinga toʻla, tarix esa... asosan undan xolidir.
[N]ews... is full of noise and... history is largely stripped of it.
Treyderning fikrlash tizimi uni aynan boshqa odamlar qilmaydigan ishni qilishga yoʻnaltirishi lozim.
A trader's mental construction should direct him to do precisely what other people do not do.
Faxriy treyder Marti O'Konnell buni „oʻt oʻchirish xonasi effekti“ (firehouse effect) deb ataydi. ...Bir-biri bilan haddan tashqari uzoq vaqt muloqot qiladigan oʻt oʻchiruvchilar... yakunda tashqi, xolis kuzatuvchiga mutloqo bemaʼni tuyuladigan koʻplab narsalarda oʻzaro hamfikr boʻlib qolishadi...
Veteran trader Marty O'Connell calls this the firehouse effect. ...[F]iremen ...who talk to each other for too long come to agree on many things that an outside, impartial observer would find ludicrous...
Istalgan vaqtda eng boy treyderlar koʻpincha eng yomon treyderlar boʻladi. Men buni „kesimdagi muammo“ (cross-sectional problem) deb atayman: Muayyan vaqtda... eng muvaffaqiyatli treyderlar, odatda, eng oxirgi davrga (tsiklga) mos kelib qolganlar boʻladi.
[A]t any point in time, the richest traders are often the worst traders. This I will call the cross-sectional problem: At a given time... the most successful traders are likely to be those fit for the latest cycle.
Ular, buning ustiga eng tasodifiy muhitlarda faoliyat koʻrsatadigan ashaddiy muvaffaqiyatli tasodifiylik ahmogʻiga xos xususiyatlarga egadir. ...Ularning boshliqlari va ish beruvchilari ham aynan shu xususiyatni baham koʻrishgan. Ular ham bozordan butunlay chiqib ketishgan.
[T]hey share the traits of the acute successful randomness fool who, in addition, operates in the most random of environments. ...[T]heir bosses and employers shared the same trait. They, too, are permanently out of the market.
Yomon treyderlar oʻz pozitsiyalaridan voz kechishdan koʻra, turmush oʻrtoqlari bilan tezroq ajrashishadi degan gap bor. Gʻoyalarga sodiqlik treyderlar, olimlar yoki umuman hech kim uchun yaxshi narsa emas.
There is a saying that bad traders divorce their spouse sooner than abandon their positions. Loyalty to ideas is not a good thing for traders, scientists - or anyone.
Xuddi biror hayvon oʻz tanlanma trayektoriyasi omadli boʻlgani... evolutsion kamdan-kam roʻy beradigan hodisadan omon qolgani sababli yashab qolishi mumkin boʻlganidek, muayyan biznesdagi „eng yaxshi“ ishtirokchilar ham [shunday omon qolishi mumkin]... Buning bitta zararli xususiyati shundaki, bular... kamdan-kam roʻy beradigan hodisaga duch kelmasdan qanchalik uzoq vaqt oʻtkazishsa, unga nisbatan shunchalik zaif boʻlib borishadi. ...Agar vaqt cheksizlikka qadar uzaytirilsa, ergodiklik qonuniga koʻra, oʻsha hodisa muqarrar ravishda sodir boʻladi — tur butunlay yoʻq boʻlib ketadi! Chunki evolutsiya barcha mumkin boʻlgan muhitlarning oʻrtacha qiymatiga emas, balki faqat bitta vaqtinchalik ketma-ketlikka moslashishni anglatadi.
Just as an animal could have survived because its sample path was lucky... free of the evolutionary rare event, the "best" operators in a given business can... One vicious attribute is that the longer these... can go without encountering the rare event, the more vulnerable they will be to it. ...[S]hould one extend time to infinity, then by ergodicity, that event will happen with certainty—the species will be wiped out! For evolution means fitness to... only one time series, not the average of all possible environments.
Nega odamlar ehtimollik va matematik kutilmani, yaʼni ehtimollik hamda ehtimollikning natijaga (yutuq/zararga) koʻpaytmasini chalkashtirib yuborishadi? Asosan buning sababi taʼlim tizimidagi darslarning aksariyati simmetrik muhitlardan olingan misollarga asoslanganidir... qoʻngʻiroqsimon egri chiziq (normal taqsimot)... mutloqo simmetrikdir.
Why do [people] confuse probability and expectation, that is, probability [vs.] probability times payoff? Mainly because much... schooling comes from examples in symmetric environments... the... bell curve... is entirely symmetric.
Men oʻz faoliyatim va biznesimni shunday tashkil qilganmanki... foyda koʻray... Men asimmetrik garovlar orqali kamdan-kam roʻy beradigan hodisalardan foyda olyapman.
I have organized my career and business in such a way as to... benefit... I am profiting from the rare event, with asymmetric bets.
Aksariyat sohalarda... asimmetriya muhim rol oʻynamaydi. ...Turli natijalar oʻrtasidagi yakuniy farq unchalik katta boʻlmaganida, koʻplab soha mutaxassislari... oʻz tanlanmalaridan ekstremal qiymatlarni olib tashlashda hech qanday muammoga duch kelishmaydi... Professor... chetga chiquvchi (ekstremal) qiymatlarni olib tashlaydi va qolganlarining oʻrtacha qiymatini hisoblaydi, bunda uning xulosasi... notoʻgʻri boʻlib qolmaydi. Oddiy ob-havo prognozchisi ham xuddi shunday yoʻl tutadi... Shuning uchun moliya sohasi vakillari ham ushbu texnikani oʻzlashtirib, kamdan-kam roʻy beradigan hodisalarga eʼtibor berishmaydi, biroq buning oqibati... kompaniyani bankrot qilishi mumkinligini bilishmaydi.
In most disciplines... asymmetry does not matter. ...People in most fields ...do not have problems eliminating extreme values from their sample, when the difference in payoff between different outcomes is not significant ...A professor ...removes the ...outliers, and takes the average of the remaining ones, without ...being ...unsound. A casual weather forecaster does the same ...So people in finance borrow the technique and ignore infrequent events, not knowing that the effect ...can bankrupt a company.
Koʻplab olimlar... shunday ahmoqlikka yoʻliqishadi... Bunga yaqqol misollardan biri — global isishdir... Bu olimlar dastlab [yuqori haroratli] keskin koʻtarilishlar kamdan-kam roʻy bersa-da, muzliklarning umumiy erishiga nomutanosib ravishda katta taʼsir koʻrsatishini hisobga olishmagan. ...Katta oqibatlarga olib keladigan hodisa, garchi u kamdan-kam sodir boʻlsa ham, uni eʼtiborsiz qoldirib boʻlmaydi.
Many scientists... are... subject to such foolishness... One flagrant example is... global warming... These scientists initially ignored the fact that these [high temperature] spikes, although rare, had the effect of adding disproportionately to the cumulative melting of the ice caps. ...[A]n event, although rare, that brings large consequences cannot be ignored.
Baʼzan bozor maʼlumotlari oddiy qopqonga aylanadi; u sizga oʻz tabiatining mutloqo teskarisini koʻrsatadi... [masalan,] tarixan eng yuqori barqarorlikni namoyish etgan valyutalar... qulashga eng moyil boʻladi.
Sometimes market data becomes a simple trap; it shows you the opposite of its nature... [e.g.,] Currencies that exhibit the largest historical stability... are the most prone to crashes.
Men kelajakdagi natija koʻrsatkichi sifatida oʻtmishning yagona vaqtinchalik ketma-ketligini rad etaman; menga shunchaki maʼlumotlardan ancha koʻproq narsa kerak.
I reject a sole time series of the past as an indication of future performance; I need a lot more than data.
Biz yaqin oʻtmishdagi yuzaki tarixga haddan tashqari koʻp maʼno yuklaymiz... ammo umuman tarixdan saboq olmaymiz, [holbuki u] bizga ilgari hech qachon sodir boʻlmagan narsalar ham baribir sodir boʻlishini oʻrgatadi. ...bu tor doirada belgilangan vaqtinchalik ketma-ketlikdan tashqaridadir; qarash qanchalik keng boʻlsa, saboq ham shunchalik yaxshi boʻladi.
[W]e read too much into shallow recent history... but not from history in general [which] teaches us that things that never happened before do happen. ...outside of the narrowly defined time series; the broader the look, the better the lesson.
...treyderlarning shunday toifasi borki, ularda „teskari“ kamdan-kam roʻy beradigan hodisalar kuzatiladi, ular uchun oʻzgaruvchanlik (volatillik) koʻpincha xushxabar olib keladi. Bunday treyderlar tez-tez, lekin kichik miqdorda pul yoʻqotishadi va kamdan-kam, lekin katta miqdorda pul ishlashadi. ...inqiroz ovchilari. Men ulardan biri boʻlganimdan xursandman.
[T]here is a category of traders who have inverse rare events, for whom volatility is often the bearer of good news. Those traders lose money frequently, but in small amounts, and make money rarely, but in large amounts. ...crisis hunters. I am happy to be one of them.
Statistika... butunlay ishonchlilik darajasining muntazam ravishda ortib borishiga asoslanadi... Tanlanma hajmining n marta oshishi uchun biz oʻz bilimimizni n ning kvadrat ildizi miqdorida oshiramiz. ...Statistika bizga pand beradigan joy asimmetrik boʻlgan taqsimotlarga duch kelganimizdadir... Agar asosan qora sharlar boʻlgan koʻzada qizil sharni topish ehtimoli juda kichik boʻlsa, u holda qizil sharlarning yoʻqligi haqidagi bilimimiz [yanada] sekinroq oʻsib boradi. ...Boshqa tomondan, ulardan bittasi topilishi bilanoq, qizil sharlarning borligi haqidagi bilimimiz keskin yaxshilanadi. Bilimdagi ushbu asimmetriya... David Hume va Karl Popper uchun markaziy falsafiy muammo hisoblanadi.
[S]tatistics... is all based on... the steady augmentation of the confidence level... [F]or an n times increase in sample size, we increase our knowledge by the square root on n. ...Where statistics ...fails us, is when we have distributions that are not symmetric... If there is a very small probability of finding a red ball in an urn dominated by black ones, then our knowledge about the absence of red balls will increase [even more] slowly. ...On the other hand, our knowledge of the presence of red balls will dramatically improve once one of them is found. This asymmetry in knowledge... is the central philosophical problem for... David Hume and Karl Popper.
David Hume muammoni quyidagicha ifodalagan (bu keyinchalik... John Stuart Mill tomonidan qora qush muammosi shaklida qayta bayon etilgan): „Oq qushlarni qanchalik koʻp kuzatmaylik, bu bizga barcha qushlar oq degan xulosaga kelishga asos boʻlolmaydi, biroq bittagina qora qushni kuzatish ushbu xulosani rad etish uchun kifoyadir“.
David Hume posed the issue in the following way (as rephrased in the black swan problem by... John Stuart Mill) No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion.
Ilm-fan Bacon tufayli empirik (tajribaviy) kuzatuvlarga urgʻu berish tomonga oʻzgargan edi. Muammo shundaki, toʻgʻri metodologiyasiz empirik kuzatuvlar sizni chalgʻitib yuborishi mumkin. Hume bilim toʻplash va uni talqin qilishda qatʼiy intizom (rigor) zarurligini taʼkidlash uchun keldi... epistemologiya... Hume birinchi zamonaviy epistemolog hisoblanadi... u ashaddiy skeptik boʻlgan va ikki narsa oʻrtasidagi bogʻliqlikni hech qachon sabab-oqibat aloqasi sifatida qatʼiy oʻrnatish mumkinligiga ishonmagan.
Science had shifted, thanks to Bacon, into an emphasis on empirical observation. The problem is that, without a proper method, empirical observations can lead you astray. Hume came to... stress the need for some rigor in the gathering and interpretation of knowledge... epistemology... Hume is the first modern epistemologist... he was an obsessive skeptic and never believed... that a link between two items could be established as being causal.
Gʻalaba qozonish ehtimolini maksimallashtirish, agar insonning strategiyasi asimmetriyani (asimetriya), yaʼni katta zarar koʻrishning kichik ehtimoli va kichik yutuq olishning katta ehtimolini oʻz ichiga olsa, oʻyindan olinadigan matematik kutilmani maksimallashtirishga olib kelmaydi. Agar siz Rus ruletkasiga oʻxshash strategiyadan foydalansangiz... deyarli barcha tanlanmalarda gʻolib boʻlib koʻrinishingiz ehtimoli yuqori — faqatgina oʻzingiz oʻladigan yildan tashqari.
Maximizing the probability of winning does not lead to maximizing the expectation from the game when one's strategy may include skewness, i.e., a small chance of a large loss and a large chance of a small win. If you engaged in a Russian Roulette-type strategy... you are likely to show up as the winner in almost all samples—except in the year when you are dead.
Biz mantiqiy va ratsional (oqilona) gʻoyalarni ilgari surishni yaxshi koʻramiz, biroq ularni amalga oshirishdan (ijro etishdan) zavqlanmaymiz.
[W]e like to emit logical and rational ideas but we do not enjoy this execution.
Nimaniki eslab qolish osonroq: shunchaki bir-biriga yopishtirilgan faktlar toʻplamimi yoki mantiqiy bogʻliqliklar zanjirini taqdim etuvchi hikoyami? Sabab-oqibat aloqasini xotirada saqlash ancha oson. ...Induksiya oʻzi nima? ...U juda qulay, chunki umumiy qoida xotirada mayda-chuyda tafsilotlar toʻplamiga qaraganda ancha kam joy egallaydi. Bunday siqishning (kompressiyaning) oqibati — idrok etilayotgan tasodifiylik darajasining kamayishidir.
What is easier to remember, a collection of facts glued together, or a story, something that offers a series of logical links? Causality is easier to commit to memory. ...What is induction exactly? ...It is very handy, as the general takes much less room in one's memory than a collection of particulars. The effect of such compression is the reduction in the degree of detected randomness.
Men tajovuzkor (katta) garovlar tikish uchun statistika va induktiv metodlardan foydalanaman, biroq ulardan oʻz xavf-xatarlarimni (tavakkalchilikni) boshqarishda aslo foydalanmayman. ...Men tanigan va bozorda omon qolgan barcha treyderlar ham xuddi shunday yoʻl tutishgan. ...Ular xato qilganda buning qiymati (zarari) cheklangan boʻlishiga ishonch hosil qilishadi... qaysi voqea ularning taxminlari xato ekanini isbotlashini oldindan bilishadi va buni hisobga olishadi... Oʻsha zahoti ular oʻz savdosini toʻxtatishadi. Bu „stop loss“ (zararni toʻxtatish) deb ataladi... Men buni juda kam qoʻllanilishini koʻraman.
I will use statistics and inductive methods to make aggressive bets, but I will not use them to manage my risks and exposure. ...[A]ll the surviving traders I know seem to have done the same. ...[T]hey make sure the cost of being wrong is limited ...they know ...which events would prove their conjecture wrong and allow for it ...They would then terminate their trade. This is called a stop loss ...I find it rarely practiced.
Xato — bu sodir boʻlgan voqeadan keyin (kechikib) aniqlanadigan narsa emas, balki oʻsha lahzagacha mavjud boʻlgan maʼlumotlar yorugʻida baholanishi kerak boʻlgan holatdir.
A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point.
Men har doim oʻzimga eslatib turaman: inson kuzatayotgan narsa — bu shunchaki sof natija (daromad) emas, balki eng yaxshi holatda ham oʻzgaruvchanlik (dispersiya) va natijaning oʻzaro birikmasidir.
I always remind myself that what one observes is at best a combination of variance and returns, not just returns.
Men pulni kamdan-kam, imkon qadar eng kam tezlikda ishlashga harakat qilaman; chunki men kamdan-kam roʻy beradigan (nodir) hodisalar adolatli baholanmasligiga va voqea qanchalik nodir boʻlsa, uning narxi shunchalik past baholanishiga ishonaman.
I try to make money infrequently, as infrequently as possible simply because I believe that rare events are not fairly valued, and that the rarer the event, the more undervalued it will be in price.
Xulosa chiqarish bilan bogʻliq asosiy muammo shundaki... maʼlumotlardan xulosa chiqarish oʻz kasbi boʻlgan insonlar koʻpincha bu qopqonga tezroq va ishonch bilan tushib qolishadi... Qancha koʻp maʼlumotga ega boʻlsak, unda choʻkib ketish ehtimolimiz shunchalik yuqori boʻladi. Umumiy qarashga koʻra... qaror qabul qilish quyidagi prinsipga asoslanadi: kimdir doimiy ravishda... yaxshi natija koʻrsatayotgan boʻlsa, demak u nimadir toʻgʻri ish qilyapti. ...[A]gar kimdir oʻtmishda yaxshiroq natija koʻrsatgan boʻlsa, kelajakda ham olomon ichida yaxshiroq natija koʻrsatish ehtimoli yuqoriroq... Ammo... ehtimollik nazariyasidan kichik bilim hech qanday bilimga ega boʻlmaslikdan ham yomonroq natijalarga olib kelishi mumkin.
The major problem with inference... is that those whose profession it is to derive conclusions from data often fall into the trap faster and more confidently... The more data we have, the more likely we are to drown in it. For common wisdom... is to base... decision making on the following principle: It is very unlikely for someone to perform... well in a consistent fashion without doing something right. ...[I]f someone performed better... in the past then there is a great[er] chance of performing better than the crowd in the future... But... [a] small knowledge of probability can lead to worse results than no knowledge at all.
Ratsionalroq boʻlish yoki ijtimoiy mensimaslik (kamsitish) hislarini tuygʻularga berilmasdan qabul qilish — inson zotiga xos emas... hozirgi biologiyamiz bilan bu imkonsiz. Mantiqiy mulohaza yuritishdan hech qanday taskin topib boʻlmaydi...
[B]ecoming more rational, or not feeling the emotions of social slights, is not part of the human race... not with our current biology. There is no solace to be found from reasoning...
Optimistik (nekbin) qarashlar muvaffaqiyat bashoratchisi ekanligi aytiladi. ...U, shuningdek, muvaffaqiyatsizlik bashoratchisi ham boʻlishi mumkin. Optimist insonlar... ehtimolliklar haqida haddan tashqari oʻziga ishonganliklari uchun koʻproq tavakkal qilishadi; yutganlar boylar va mashhurlar qatorida koʻrinishadi, qolganlar esa muvaffaqiyatsizlikka uchrab, tahlil doirasidan gʻoyib boʻlishadi.
Optimism, it is said, is predictive of success. ...It can also be predictive of failure. Optimistic people... take more risks as they are overconfident of the about the odds; those who win show up among the rich and famous, others fail and disappear from the analysis.
Keling, 10 000 ta xayoliy investitsiya menejerini tasavvur qilaylik... Menejer bir yil zarar koʻrishi bilanoq, namuna (tahlil) doirasidan chiqarib tashlanadi. ...Tangani tanga tashlaymiz; „gerb“ chiqsa, menejer yil davomida 10 000 dollar daromad qiladi, „raqam“ chiqsa, 10 000 dollar yoʻqotadi. ...Adolatli oʻyinda ketma-ket besh yil foyda koʻrgan 313 nafar menejer qoladi. ...Agar biz ulardan birini real dunyoga tashlasak... uning „ajoyib uslubi“, „oʻtkir zehni“ haqida sharhlar olamiz... Uning tarjimayi holini yozuvchi... kelajakdagi buyuk daholardan biri haqida hikoya qiladi. ...Agar uning natijalari pasaya boshlasa (...uning gʻalaba qozonish ehtimoli baribir 50% ligicha qolgan boʻlsa ham), ular... uning „yomon turmush tarzi“dan kamchilik qidirishni boshlashadi. Ular u toʻxtatib qoʻygan biror narsani topib olishadi va uning muvaffaqiyatsizligini oʻsha narsaga yoʻyishadi... Haqiqat shundaki... uning shunchaki omadi tugagan edi.
Let us use 10,000 fictional investment managers... [O]nce a manager has a single bad year, he is thrown out of the sample. ...[T]oss a coin; heads and the manager will make $10,000 over the year, tails and he will lose $10,000. ...We have, in a fair game, 313 managers who made money five years in a row. ...[I]f we throw one of these ...into the real world we would get ...comments on his remarkable style, his incisive mind... His biographer will dwell on ...a great mind in the making. ...[S]hould he stop performing (...his odds ...have stayed at 50%) they would start ...finding fault with his dissipated lifestyle. They will find something he stopped doing, and attribute his failure... The truth ...he simply ran out of luck.
Biror shaxs oʻtmishda qandaydir daromad olgani haqidagi maʼlumot... oʻz-oʻzidan na mazmunli, na ahamiyatlidir. Biz u qaysi populyatsiyadan (umumiy guruhdan) chiqqanini bilishimiz kerak. Agar boshlangʻich guruh 10 000 nafar menejerdan iborat boʻlsa, men (oʻsha bir kishining) natijalariga umuman eʼtibor bermagan boʻlardim.
The information that a person derived some profit in the past... by itself, is neither meaningful nor relevant. We need to know the size of the population from which he came. If the initial population is 10,000 managers, I would ignore the results.
Professor Karl Pearson tasodifiy bo‘lmaganlikni aniqlaydigan birinchi testni ishlab chiqdi. U “Monte-Karlo” (ruletkaning eski nomi) deb atalgan o‘yinning millionlab yurishlarini tahlil qildi... va bu yurishlar mutlaqo tasodifiy emasligini aniqladi. ...Statistika faylasuflari buni amalda haqiqiy tasodifiylikka erishib bo‘lmasligini, u faqat nazariyada mavjudligini tushuntirish uchun “etalon holati muammosi” deb atashadi.
Professor Karl Pearson... devised the first test of nonrandomness... He examined millions of runs of what was called a Monte Carlo (the old name for a roulette wheel)... He discovered... the runs were not purely random. ...Philosophers of statistics call this the reference case problem to explain that there is no true attainable randomness in practice, only in theory.
Hatto statistika fanining asoschilari ham tasodifiy qatorlar qandaydir naqsh (tartib) koʻrsatishga majbur ekanligini unutib qoʻyishgan... Pearson... sunʼiy tasodifiy sonlar generatorlari va... simulyatsiyalar uchun kiritiladigan jadvallarni yaratishdan manfaatdor boʻlgan dastlabki olimlardan biri edi. ...Ular bu jadvallarda... muntazamlik (takrorlanish) boʻlishini xohlashmagan. Biroq, haqiqiy tasodifiylik tasodifiy koʻrinmaydi! ...Bitta tasodifiy qator qandaydir naqshni namoyon etishga majbur.
Even the fathers of statistical science forgot that a random series is bound to exhibit some pattern... Pearson was among the first scholars interested in creating artificial random number generators, tables one could use as inputs for... simulations (precursors of our Monte Carlo simulator). ...[T]hey did not want these tables to exhibit... regularity. Yet real randomness does not look random! ...A single random run is bound to exhibit some pattern ...
Oʻzining mashaqqatli sinovlari davomida Nero biror marta ham oʻzini 72% tirik va 28% oʻlik deb hisoblamadi.
At no point during his ordeal did Nero think of himself as 72% alive and 28% dead.
Ehtimollik — bu shunchaki raqamli imkoniyatlar haqida emas, balki muqobil (boshqacha) natija, sabab yoki motiv mavjudligiga boʻlgan ishonch haqidadir.
Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.
Biz koʻrinadigan, oʻzlashtirilgan, shaxsiy, hikoya qilib berilgan va qoʻl bilan ushlab boʻladigan (moddiy) narsalarni maʼqul koʻramiz; mavhum (abstrakt) narsalarga esa past nazar bilan qaraymiz.
We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible; we scorn the abstract.
Vitgenshteyn oʻlchovi: „Agar siz oʻlchagichning ishonchliligiga ishonchingiz komil boʻlmasa, stolni oʻlchash uchun oʻlchagichdan foydalanish barobarida, siz aslida oʻlchagichni oʻlchash uchun stoldan ham foydalanayotgan boʻlishingiz mumkin“.
Wittgenstein's ruler: "Unless you have confidence in the ruler's reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler."
Iqtisodchilar oʻz bilimlarining haqiqiy voqelikka muvofiqligi boʻyicha emas, balki qanchalik aqlli gapirayotganlari boʻyicha baholanadilar.
[E]conomists are evaluated on how intelligent they sound, not on a scientific measure of their knowledge of reality.
Iqtisod — bu hikoyaviy (narrativ) fan va tushuntirishlarni oʻtmishdagi voqealar asosida moslashtirish juda oson.
[E]conomics is a narrative discipline, and explanations are easy to fit retrospectively.
Iqtisodiyotda... siz firibgarlikni tenglamalar ogʻirligi ostiga yashirishingiz mumkin va hech kim sizni qoʻlga tushira olmaydi, chunki iqtisodiyotda „nazorat qilinadigan tajriba“ degan narsa yoʻq. Endi, tanqidchilar tomonidan „ilmiylik niqobi“ (scientism) deb ataladigan bunday usullarning ruhi moliya faniga ham kirib keldi, chunki bir guruh texnik mutaxassislar oʻzlarining matematik bilimlari bozorlarni tushunishga yordam beradi deb oʻylashdi. Moliyaviy muhandislik amaliyoti oʻzi bilan birga ulkan dozalardagi soxta ilmiylikni (psevdofan) olib keldi.
[In] economics... you can disguise charlatanism under the weight of equations and nobody can catch you since there is no such thing as a controlled experiment. Now the spirit of such methods, called scientism by its detractors, continued into the discipline of finance as a few technicians thought their mathematical knowledge could lead them to understand markets. The practice of financial engineering came along with massive doses of pseudoscience.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2007)
[tahrirlash]Random House, 2008, ISBN 0-81297-918-4
Men Marks va Adam Smith izdoshlari bilan kelisha olmayman: erkin bozorlarning ishlash sababi odamlarga „ragʻbat“ yoki „mukofot“ berishida emas, balki agressiv „sinash va xato qilish“ orqali ularga omadli boʻlish imkonini berishidadir.
I disagree with the followers of Marx and those of Adam Smith: the reason free markets work is because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or "incentives" for skill.
Do‘stingizning fe’l-atvori, axloqi va shaxsiy nafosati haqida tasavvurga ega bo‘lmoqchi bo‘lsangiz, unga kundalik hayotning doimiy farahbaxsh yog‘dusi ostida emas, balki og‘ir sharoitlar sinovida nazar solishingiz kerak. Jinoyatchining oddiy kunda qiladigan ishlariga qarab, u qanchalik xavfli ekanini baholay olasizmi? Vahshiy kasalliklar va epidemiyalarni inobatga olmasdan sog‘likning mohiyatini tushuna olamizmi? Darhaqiqat, odatiy holat ko‘pincha ahamiyatsizdir.
If you want to get an idea of a friend's temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life. Can you assess the danger a criminal poses by examining only what he does on an ordinary day? Can we understand health without considering wild diseases and epidemics? Indeed the normal is often irrelevant.
Millatni bayroq, bir nechta nutq va davlat madhiyasi bilan qanchalik tez va samarali tarzda qurish mumkinligi hayratlanarlidir; shu kungacha men „livanlik“ degan yorliqdan qochib, uning oʻrniga kamroq cheklovchi „levantlik“ atamasini afzal koʻraman.
It is remarkable how fast and how effectively you can construct a nationality with a flag, a few speeches, and a national anthem; to this day I avoid the label "Lebanese," preferring the less restrictive "Levantine" designation.
Tarix — shaffof emas. Siz sodir boʻlgan voqealarni koʻrasiz, lekin ularni keltirib chiqargan ssenariyni emas, [...] Tarixiy voqealarning generatori voqealarning oʻzidan farq qiladi, xuddi xudolarning aqlini ularning qilmishlariga qarab oʻqib boʻlmaganidek.
History is opaque. You see what comes out, not the script that produces events, [...] The generator of historical events is different from the events themselves, much as the minds of the gods cannot be read just by witnessing their deeds.
Turkumlash insonlar uchun zarur, biroq qachonki bu turkum yakuniy va oʻzgarmas deb qaralsa, u patologik (kasallik) tus oladi. Bu esa odamlarga chegaralarning noaniqligini tushunishga, qolaversa, oʻz turkumlarini qayta koʻrib chiqishga toʻsqinlik qiladi.
Categorizing is necessary for humans, but it becomes pathological when the category is seen as definitive, preventing people from considering the fuzziness of boundaries, let alone revising their categories.
Shu narsa haqiqatligicha qoladiki, siz nima toʻgʻri ekanini bilishdan koʻra, nima notoʻgʻri ekanini ancha yuqori ishonch bilan bilasiz.
But it remains the case that you know what is wrong with a lot more confidence than you know what is right.
Biz bilimlardan terapiya (ruhiy dalda) sifatida foydalanishga moyilmiz.
We tend to use knowledge as therapy.
Kurkaning tajribasi nafaqat qiymatsiz, balki „salbiy qiymatga“ ega boʻlishi mumkinligini hisobga oling. U barchamizga tavsiya qilinganidek, kuzatuv orqali oʻrgangan (axir, ilmiy metod deb shuni aytishadi-ku!). Doʻstona boqib turishlar soni koʻpaygani sari uning ishonchi ortib bordi va soʻyish muqarrar boʻlib qolganiga qaramay, u oʻzini tobora xavfsizroq his qildi. Eʼtibor bering, xavf eng yuqori choʻqqiga chiqqanda, xavfsizlik hissi ham maksimal darajaga yetgan edi!
Consider that the turkey's experience may have, rather than no value, a negative value. It learned from observation, as we are all advised to do (hey, after all, this is what is believed to be the scientific method). Its confidence increased as the number of friendly feedings grew, and it felt increasingly safe even though the slaughter was more and more imminent. Consider that the feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest!
Kazino — men biladigan yagona insoniy faoliyatdirki, unda ehtimolliklar maʼlum, Gausscha (yaʼni, qoʻngʻiroqsimon egri chiziq) va deyarli hisoblab chiqiladigan darajadadir.
The casino is the only human venture I know where the probabilities are known, Gaussian (i.e., bell-curve), and almost computable.
Ehtimollik — bu gumanitar fan; u skeptitsizmning (shubha qilishning) farzandidir, belida kalkulyator koʻtarib yurgan, oʻzining chiroyli hisob-kitoblar va „aniqlik“ka boʻlgan xohishini qondirmoqchi boʻlgan odamlar uchun vosita emas.
Probability is a liberal art; it is a child of skepticism, not a tool for people with calculators on their belts to satisfy their desire to produce fancy calculations and certainties.
Tasodifiy boʻlmagan, lekin u haqidagi maʼlumotlar yetarli boʻlmagan oʻzgaruvchini taxmin qilish (...) bilan tasodifiy oʻzgaruvchini taxmin qilish oʻrtasida hech qanday samarali farq yoʻq. Shu maʼnoda, taxmin qilish (men bilmaydigan, lekin boshqa birov bilishi mumkin boʻlgan narsani) va bashorat qilish (hali sodir boʻlmagan narsani) bir xil narsadir.
There is no effective difference between guessing a variable that is not random, but for which information is partial or deficient (...), and a random one (...). In this sense, guessing (what I don't know, but what someone else may know) and predicting (what has not taken place yet) are the same thing.
Kumulativ (yigʻilib boruvchi) xatolar asosan katta kutilmagan hodisalar va katta imkoniyatlarga bogʻliq. Iqtisodiy, moliyaviy va siyosiy bashoratchilar nafaqat ularni oʻtkazib yuborishadi, balki mijozlariga biron bir noodatiy narsa aytishdan uyalishadi — holbuki, „voqealar, maʼlum boʻlishicha, deyarli har doim noodatiy (gʻayrioddiy) boʻladi.“
Cumulative errors depend largely on the big surprises, the big opportunities. Not only do economic, financial, and political predictors miss them, but they are quite ashamed to say anything outlandish to their clients — and yet events, it turns out, are almost always outlandish.
Agar daryo oʻrtacha toʻrt fut chuqurlikda boʻlsa, uni kechib oʻtmang.
Don't cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.
Byurokratlarning bashoratlari adekvat siyosat yuritish uchun emas, koʻproq xavotirni bosish (tinchlantirish) uchun ishlatiladi.
Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.
Bir xil oʻtmishdagi maʼlumotlar ham nazariyani, ham uning mutlaqo teskarisini tasdiqlashi mumkin! Agar siz ertagacha omon qolsangiz, bu yo (a) sizning oʻlmas boʻlish ehtimolingiz yuqoriroqligini yoki (b) siz oʻlimga yana bir kun yaqinlashganingizni anglatishi mumkin.
The same past data can confirm a theory and its exact opposite! If you survive until tomorrow, it could mean that either a) you are more likely to be immortal or b) that you are closer to death.
Inson oʻz xatolarga moyilligini tan olish orqali hokimiyatni (obroʻni) oʻrnatolmaydi. Oddiy qilib aytganda, odamlar bilim bilan koʻr boʻlishlari kerak — biz odamlarni bir joyga toʻplay oladigan yetakchilarga ergashishga mahkum etilganmiz, chunki guruhda boʻlishning afzalliklari yolgʻiz qolishning kamchiliklaridan ustun turadi. Toʻgʻri yoʻlda yolgʻiz qolgandan koʻra, notoʻgʻri yoʻlda jipslashgan holda harakat qilish biz uchun foydaliroq boʻlib kelgan. Introspektiv (oʻzini tahlil qiluvchi) donishmanddan koʻra, oʻziga ishongan ahmoqqa ergashganlar oʻz genlarining bir qismini bizga meros qoldirganlar. Bu ijtimoiy patologiyada yaqqol koʻrinadi: psixopatlar oʻz ortidan ergashuvchilarni toʻplaydi.
One cannot assert authority by accepting one's own fallibility. Simply, people need to be blinded by knowledge - we are made to follow leaders who can gather people together because the advantages of being in groups trump the disadvantages of being alone. It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one. Those who have followed the assertive idiot rather than the introspective wise person have passed us some of their genes. This is apparent from a social pathology: psychopaths rally followers.
Nazariy jihatdan tasodifiylik ichki xususiyat boʻlsa-da, amalda tasodifiylik bu „toʻliq boʻlmagan maʼlumot“dir.
While in theory randomness is an intrinsic property, in practice, randomness is incomplete information.
Eʼtiqodlarni ularning haqiqatga yaqinligi (ishonarliligi) boʻyicha emas, balki ular keltirib chiqarishi mumkin boʻlgan zarar miqdori boʻyicha baholang.
Rank beliefs not according to their plausibility but by the harm they may cause.
Bu katta shaharlarda yashashni bebaho qiladi, chunki siz kutilmagan baxtli hodisalar ehtimolini oshirasiz — siz „baxtli tasodiflar muhiti“ga kirish imkoniga ega boʻlasiz.
This makes living in big cities invaluable because you increase the odds of serendipitous encounters — you gain exposure to the envelope of serendipity.
Globallashuv oʻzaro bogʻliq moʻrtlikni yaratadi, shu bilan birga oʻzgaruvchanlikni kamaytirib, barqarorlik koʻrinishini beradi. Boshqacha aytganda, u vayronkor „Qora qushlar“ni keltirib chiqaradi. Biz ilgari hech qachon global qulash tahdidi ostida yashamaganmiz. Moliya institutlari kam sonli juda yirik banklarga birlashib bormoqda. Deyarli barcha banklar oʻzaro bogʻliq. Shunday qilib, moliyaviy ekotizim gigant, qarindosh-urugʻchilikka asoslangan, byurokratik banklarga aylanib bormoqda — biri qulasa, hammasi qulaydi. Banklar oʻrtasidagi kuchayib borayotgan konsentratsiya moliyaviy inqirozni kamroq ehtimolli qilgandek tuyuladi, lekin ular yuz berganda, ular global koʻlamda boʻladi va bizga juda qattiq zarba beradi. Biz turli kredit siyosatiga ega boʻlgan kichik banklarning diversifikatsiyalangan ekotizimidan, bir-biriga oʻxshash firmalarning yanada bir xil (gomogen) tizimiga oʻtdik. Toʻgʻri, bizda endi bankrotliklar kamroq, lekin ular yuz berganda... bu oʻy haqida oʻylasam etim junjikib ketadi.
Globalization creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words it creates devastating Black Swans. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse. Financial Institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Almost all banks are interrelated. So the financial ecology is swelling into gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic banks — when one fails, they all fall. The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crisis less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale and hit us very hard. We have moved from a diversified ecology of small banks, with varied lending policies, to a more homogeneous framework of firms that all resemble one another. True, we now have fewer failures, but when they occur... I shiver at the thought.
Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world (2009)
[tahrirlash]- Financial Times, 2009-04-07, source.
Iqtisodiy muassasalar (universitetlar, regulyatorlar, markaziy bankirlar, hukumat amaldorlari va iqtisodchilar bilan toʻldirilgan turli tashkilotlar) tizimning barbod boʻlishi bilan oʻz qonuniyligini yoʻqotdi. Bizni bu botqoqlikdan chiqarib olish uchun bunday ekspertlarning qobiliyatiga ishonish mas’uliyatsizlik va ahmoqlikdir. Buning oʻrniga, qoʻli toza (tizimga aloqador boʻlmagan yoki xato qilmagan) aqlli odamlarni izlang.
The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean.
Bizni bugungi holatga keltirgan narsa — bonus tizimidagi asimmetriya (notenglik). Jazolashsiz ragʻbatlantirish boʻlmasligi kerak: kapitalizm — bu faqat mukofot emas, balki mukofotlar va jazolarning uygʻunligidir.
It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards.
Faqat Ponzi sxemalari ishonchga tayanib qolishi kerak. Hukumatlar hech qachon „ishonchni tiklash“ga muhtoj boʻlmasligi kerak. Kaskadli (zanjirsimon) mish-mishlar — bu murakkab tizimlarning mahsulidir. Hukumatlar mish-mishlarni toʻxtata olmaydi. Oddiygina qilib aytganda, biz mish-mishlarga mensimay qaraydigan, ularga nisbatan mustahkam (robust) boʻlgan pozitsiyada turishimiz kerak.
Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence.” Cascading rumours are a product of complex systems. Governments cannot stop the rumours. Simply, we need to be in a position to shrug off rumours, be robust in the face of them.
Qarz muammosini koʻproq qarz olish bilan davolash — bu gomeopatiya emas, bu inkor etishdir. Qarz inqirozi vaqtinchalik muammo emas, bu tizimli muammo. Bizga reabilitatsiya (tizimli davolanish) kerak.
Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial. The debt crisis is not a temporary problem, it is a structural one. We need rehab.
Iqtisodiy hayot „moliya zanjirlaridan“ xalos etilishi kerak. Biz bozorlarni qiymat saqlash ombori sifatida ishlatmaslikni oʻrganishimiz lozim: ular oddiy fuqarolarga kerak boʻlgan aniqliklarni taʼminlay olmaydi. Fuqarolar oʻzlarining nazoratidagi bizneslari haqida xavotirda boʻlishlari kerak, nazorati ularning qoʻlida boʻlmagan investitsiyalari haqida emas.
Economic life should be definancialised. We should learn not to use markets as storehouses of value: they do not harbour the certainties that normal citizens require. Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control).
Gʻoya qachonki siz uni mantiqiy yakunigacha olib borishdan qoʻrqsangizgina qiziqarli boʻla boshlaydi.
An idea starts to be interesting when you get scared of taking it to its logical conclusion.
Akademiyaning bilimga boʻlgan munosabati — bu fohishalikning muhabbatga boʻlgan munosabati kabidir.
Academia is to knowledge what prostitution is to love.
Fanda siz dunyoni tushunishingiz kerak; biznesda esa boshqalar uni notoʻgʻri tushunishlari kerak.
In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.
Boshqalarning sogʻlom fikrga ega emasligini bahona qilishning oʻzi — sogʻlom fikrning yetishmasligidir.
Using, as an excuse, others’ failure of common sense is in itself a failure of common sense.
Kechiktirish — bu ruhning oʻzini tutqunlikdan qutqarish uchun isyonidir.
Procrastination is the soul rebelling against entrapment.
Biz muvaffaqiyatsizlikka uchrashimizni ong ostida aniq bilgan holda nimadir qilmoqchi boʻlganimizda, biz maslahat soʻraymiz — shunda muvaffaqiyatsizlik uchun boshqa birovni ayblay olamiz.
When we want to do something while unconsciously certain to fail, we seek advice so we can blame someone else for the failure.
Agar siz buni chin dildan his qilsangiz, „yoʻq“ deb aytish qiyinroq.
It’s harder to say no when you really mean it.
Fandan hayot va muhim masalalarni tushuntirishini soʻrash — grammatikdan sheʼriyatni tushuntirishini soʻrash bilan barobardir.
Asking science to explain life and vital matters is equivalent to asking a grammarian to explain poetry.
Siz faqat va faqat koʻzga koʻrinadigan maqsadlarsiz, hech qanday oqlovsiz va, eng muhimi, boshqa birovning hikoyasi (diktaturasi)dan tashqarida biror narsa qilishga erkin boʻlsangizgina mavjud boʻlasiz.
You exist if and only if you are free to do things without a visible objective, with no justification and, above all, outside the dictatorship of someone else’s narrative.
Ilgari odamlar ish kunlari oddiy, yakshanba kunlari esa rasmiy kiyimda yurishardi. Bugun esa buning teskarisi.
People used to wear ordinary clothes weekdays, and formal attire on Sunday. Today it is the exact reverse.
Kitob — bu tubanlashuv (profan) taʼsiridan hali toʻliq buzilmagan yagona vositadir.
The book is the only medium left that hasn’t been corrupted by the profane.
Restoranlar sizni spirtli ichimlik sotish uchun ovqat bilan oʻziga tortadi; dinlar esa sizga qoidalarni sotish uchun eʼtiqod bilan oʻziga tortadi.
Restaurants get you in with food to sell you liquor; religions get you in with belief to sell you rules.
Gazetalardan butunlay tuzalish uchun bir yil davomida oʻtgan haftaning gazetalarini oʻqib chiqing.
To be completely cured of newspapers, spend a year reading the previous week’s newspapers.
Muvaffaqiyat — bu oʻrta yoshda bolaligingizning oxirida orzu qilgan odamingizga aylanishdir.
Success is becoming in middle adulthood what you dreamed to be in late childhood.
Modernlik boy boʻlish va boyib borish matematik, shaxsiy, ijtimoiy va axloqiy jihatdan bir xil narsa emasligini tushunib yetishi kerak.
Modernity needs to understand that being rich and becoming rich are not mathematically, personally, socially, and ethically the same thing.
Qariyalar yoshlarda yetishmaydigan xislatlarga ega boʻlganlarida eng goʻzal koʻrinishadi: vazminlik, eruditsiya, donishmandlik, fronesis (amaliy donolik) va bu post-qahramonona xotirjamlik.
Older people are most beautiful when they have what is lacking in the young: poise, erudition, wisdom, phronesis, and this post-heroic absence of agitation.
Ahmoqlar „vaqtni behuda sarflash“ deb ataydigan narsa koʻpincha eng yaxshi sarmoyadir.
What fools call “wasting time” is most often the best investment.
Oxirgi yuz yil ichida yozilgan hech narsani oʻqimang; oxirgi ming yil ichida paydo boʻlgan hech qanday mevani yemang; oxirgi toʻrt ming yil ichida paydo boʻlgan hech narsani ichmang (faqat vino va suv); lekin qirq yoshdan oshgan oddiy odamlar bilan gaplashmang.
Read nothing from the past one hundred years; eat no fruits from the past one thousand years; drink nothing from the past four thousand years (just wine and water); but talk to no ordinary man over forty.
Qahramonona intilishga ega boʻlmagan erkak oʻttiz yoshidan boshlab oʻlishni boshlaydi.
A man without a heroic bent starts dying at the age of thirty.
„Men bandman“ deydigan odam yo oʻz layoqatsizligini (va hayoti ustidan nazoratni yoʻqotganini) tan olayotgan boʻladi, yo boʻlmasa sizdan qutulishga urinayotgan boʻladi.
Someone who says “I am busy” is either declaring incompetence (and lack of control of his life) or trying to get rid of you.
Rim va Usmonlilar davridagi qullar bilan bugungi xodimlar oʻrtasidagi farq shundaki, qullar oʻz xoʻjayiniga xushomad qilishlari shart emas edi.
The difference between slaves in Roman and Ottoman days and today’s employees is that slaves did not need to flatter their boss.
Siz faqat va faqat rad etgan pulingiz qabul qilgan pulingizdan koʻra shirinroq (qadrliroq) tuyulsa boy hisoblanasiz.
You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept.
Modernlik (zamonaviylik): biz qahramonliksiz yoshlikni, donishmandliksiz qarilikni va ulugʻvorliksiz hayotni yaratdik.
Modernity: we created youth without heroism, age without wisdom, and life without grandeur.
Biror odamning qanchalik zerikarli ekanligini, u kimni qiziqarli deb bilishini soʻrash orqali bilib olishingiz mumkin.
You can tell how uninteresting a person is by asking him whom he finds interesting.
Samaradorlikka haddan tashqari berilib ketish — sheʼriy, nafis, mustahkam va qahramonona hayot yoʻlidagi asosiy toʻsiqdir.
Preoccupation with efficacy is the main obstacle to a poetic, elegant, robust and heroic life.
Joziba — odamlarni ranjitmay haqorat qilish qobiliyati; o‘zbilarmonlik esa buning aksi.
Charm is the ability to insult people without offending them; nerdiness the reverse.
Yollanma ishni tizimli qullik deb hisoblamaydiganlar yo ko‘r, yoki o‘zlari yollanma ishchidir.
Those who do not think that employment is systemic slavery are either blind or employed.
Ular qutida dunyoga kelishadi; qutida yashash uchun uylariga qaytishadi; qutichalarni belgilab, o‘qishadi; “ish” deb ataladigan joylariga qutida borib, o‘zlarining quti kabi xonalarida o‘tirishadi; do‘konga qutida borib, qutidagi oziq-ovqatni sotib olishadi; “qutidan tashqarida” fikrlash haqida gapirishadi va vafot etishgach, ularni qutiga solishadi.
They are born, put in a box; they go home to live in a box; they study by ticking boxes; they go to what is called “work” in a box, where they sit in their cubicle box; they drive to the grocery store in a box to buy food in a box; they talk about thinking “outside the box”; and when they die they are put in a box.
Yigirmanchi asr ijtimoiy utopiyaning bankrotligi bo‘ldi; yigirma birinchisi esa texnologik utopiyaning bankrotligi bo‘ladi.
The twentieth century was the bankruptcy of the social utopia; the twenty-first will be that of the technological one.
Qachonki biror ishingizda hech kim bilan raqobatlashmasangiz, ana o‘shandagina chinakam hayot kechirayotgan boʻlasiz.
You have a real life if and only if you do not compete with anyone in any of your pursuits.
Faqat yaqin o‘tmishdagina “astoydil ishlash” iste’dod, mahorat va eng asosiysi, sprezzatura (tabiiy beparvolik) yetishmasligidan uyalishni emas, aksincha, g‘urur-iftixorni bildira boshladi.
Only in recent history has “working hard” signaled pride rather than shame for lack of talent, finesse and, mostly, sprezzatura.
Ularning “o‘yin” deb ataydigan narsalari (sport zali, sayohat, sport turlari) xuddi ishga o‘xshaydi.
What they call “play” (gym, travel, sports) looks like work.
Ko‘pchilikning “parchalanishi” erkin, ijtimoiy va beg‘ubor kollej hayotini tark etib, kasb va oila qurishdek yolg‘izlik “qamog‘iga” tushib qolganida boshlanadi.
Decomposition, for most, starts when they leave the free, social, and uncorrupted college life for the solitary confinement of professions and nuclear families.
Raqobatchi sportchiga qarash azobli; u odam bo‘lishdan ko‘ra hayvonga aylanishga qattiq urinsa-da, hech qachon geparddek tez yugura olmaydi, ho‘kizdek baquvvat bo‘la olmayd.
A competitive athlete is painful to look at; trying hard to become an animal rather than a man, he will never be as fast as a cheetah or as strong as an ox.
Aniq fanlar dahshatli zerikarli jarayon evaziga shov-shuvli natijalar beradi; falsafa shov-shuvli jarayon evaziga zerikarli natijalar beradi; adabiyot shov-shuvli jarayon evaziga shov-shuvli natijalar beradi; iqtisodiyot esa zerikarli jarayon evaziga zerikarli natijalar beradi.
Hard science gives sensational results with a horribly boring process; philosophy gives boring results with a sensational process; literature gives sensational results with a sensational process; and economics gives boring results with a boring process.
Dono naql suhbatni boshlamay turib ham so‘nggi so‘zni aytish imkonini beradi.
A good maxim allows you to have the last word without even starting a conversation.
Ahmoq juz’iylikni umumlashtiradi; nodon umumiylikni juz’iylashtiradi; ... dono esa ikkisini ham qilmaydi.
The fool generalizes the particular; the nerd particularizes the general; ... the wise does neither.
Siz o‘zligingizni saqlab qolishni, o‘ziga xos bo‘lishni istaysiz; jamoa (maktab, qoidalar, ish, texnologiya) esa sizning bu xosligingizni yo‘qotib, umumiy qolipga tushishingizni xohlaydi.
You want to be yourself, idiosyncratic; the collective (school, rules, jobs, technology) wants you generic to the point of castration.
Ahmoqning qopqoni — bu boshqalarning nimalar bilishiyu siz nimalarni bilmasligingizga emas, aksincha, o‘zingiz bilgan va boshqalar bilmagan narsalarga e’tibor qaratishingizdir.
The sucker’s trap is when you focus on what you know and what others don’t know, rather than the reverse.
Zehn ravshanligi jasoratning farzandi, aksincha emas.
Mental clarity is the child of courage, not the other way around.
Hozirjavoblik zerikarlilikdan xoli aql-idrokni namoyon etib, o‘ziga maftun qiladi.
Wit seduces by signaling intelligence without nerdiness.
Buyuklik nafratni xushmuomala mensimaslik (pisand qilmaslik) bilan almashtirishdan boshlanadi.
Greatness starts with the replacement of hatred with polite disdain.
Ezgulikning fojiasi shundaki, maqol (oʻgit) qanchalik ravshan, zerikarli, noodatiy boʻlmagan va nasihatgoʻy boʻlsa, uni amalga oshirish shunchalik qiyin boʻladi.
The tragedy of virtue is that the more obvious, boring, unoriginal, and sermonizing the proverb, the harder it is to implement.
Axloqli inson o‘z e’tiqodini kasbiga emas, balki kasbini e’tiqodiga moslashtiradi.
Ethical man accords his profession to his beliefs, instead of according his beliefs to his profession.
Bo‘yalgan sochlar yoshi katta erkaklarni xunuk ko‘rsatgani kabi, zaifliklaringizni yashirish uchun qilgan harakatlaringiz ham ularni ko‘zga xunuk qilib qo‘yadi.
Just as dyed hair makes older men less attractive, it is what you do to hide your weaknesses that makes them repugnant.
Ikki yo‘l o‘rtasida qolsangiz, hech birini tanlamang.
When conflicted between two choices, take neither.
Bardoshli inson uchun xato — bu axborotdir.
For the robust, an error is information.
Ko‘p narsalarning biz tushunmaydigan, lekin o‘zimiznikidan ancha aqlliroq mantig‘i borligini tan olish uchun favqulodda donishmandlik va matonat zarur.
It takes extraordinary wisdom and self-control to accept that many things have a logic we do not understand that is smarter than our own.
Zakovat — ahamiyatsiz narsalarga e’tibor bermaslik demakdir.
Intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant.
Qadimgi mutafakkirlar uchun falsafiy tafakkur boʻsh vaqt mahsuli edi; men uchun esa boʻsh vaqt — falsafiy tafakkur mahsulidir.
For the classics philosophical insight was the product of a life of leisure; for me a life of leisure is the product of philosophical insight.
Biz eng ko‘p saboqni ahmoqlardan olamiz... lekin ularga nonko‘rlik bilan javob qaytaramiz.
We learn the most from fools ... yet we pay them back with the worst ingratitude.
Biror kishining o‘ta ahmoq (yoki o‘ta dono) ekanligini sinashning eng yaxshi usuli – bu uning moliyaviy va siyosiy yangiliklarni tushuna olishi yoki olmasligidir.
The best test of whether someone is extremely stupid (or extremely wise) is whether financial and political news makes sense to him.
Ojiz odam kuchini ko‘rsatib, zaifligini yashiradi; ulug‘ inson esa ojizliklarini bezak yanglig‘ namoyon etadi.
The weak shows his strength and hides his weaknesses; the magnificent exhibits his weaknesses like ornaments.
Ijtimoiy fan — o‘zimiz tushuna oladigan muayyan bir toifa insonni ixtiro qilish demakdir.
Social science means inventing a certain brand of human we can understand.
Ongimiz ma’lumotlarni ixchamlashtirishga moyil bo‘lgani uchun, biz biror hodisani toifalashdan voz kechib, uni seziladigan holga keltirish o‘rniga, uni aniq va ma’lum bir qolipga solishga (noma’lum jihatlarini esa chetga surishga) ko‘proq urinamiz. Haqiqiy naqshlar bilan bir qatorda soxtalarini ham ilg‘ashimiz tufayli, tasodifiy narsalar aslidan ko‘ra kamroq tasodifiy va ko‘proq aniq bo‘lib ko‘rinadi. Haddan tashqari faol miyamiz umuman hikoyasiz qolishdan ko‘ra, noto‘g‘ri, soddalashtirilgan hikoyani ma’qul ko‘radi.
Because our minds need to reduce information, we are more likely to try to squeeze a phenomenon into the Procrustean bed of a crisp and known category (amputating the unknown), rather than suspend categorization, and make it tangible. Thanks to our detections of false patterns, along with real ones, what is random will appear less random and more certain—our overactive brains are more likely to impose the wrong, simplistic, narrative than no narrative at all.
Ahmoqlarning muayyan bir toifasi bor: bular — haddan ziyod o‘qimishlilar, akademiklar, jurnalistlar, gazeta o‘quvchilari, mexanistik “olimlar”, soxta empiristlar va men “epistemik kibr” deb ataydigan ne’matga musharraf bo‘lganlar. Bu ne’mat — o‘zlari ko‘rmagan, kuzatilmagan narsalarni inkor etishdek ajoyib bir qobiliyatdir.
There is a certain category of fool—the overeducated, the academic, the journalist, the newspaper reader, the mechanistic "scientist", the pseudo-empiricist, those endowed with what I call "epistemic arrogance", this wonderful ability to discount what they did not see, the unobserved.
Noma’lumni tasvirlashdagi va tasodifiy omillarni anglashdagi xatoliklar noxush oqibatlarga olib kelmasa, biz bardoshlimiz, aks holda esa moʻrtmiz.
We are robust when errors in the representation of the unknown and understanding of random effects do not lead to adverse outcomes —fragile otherwise.
Men ona tabiatning mustahkamlik usullariga hurmat bilan qarayman (milliardlab yillar mobaynida mo‘rt bo‘lgan deyarli barcha narsa sinib bitadi); klassik tafakkur esa zamonaviy, ya’ni Ma’rifatdan keyingi sodda, soxta ilmiy autizmdan ko‘ra ancha pishiqroqdir (chunki unda noma’lumlikka hurmat, epistemik kamtarlik bor). Shu bois, mening klassik qadriyatlarim zamonaviylikning soxtaligi, bachkanaligi va filisterligiga qarshi o‘laroq, meni bilimdonlik, nafosat va jasorat uchligini yoqlashga undaydi.
I have respect for mother nature's methods of robustness (billions of years allow most of what is fragile to break); classical thought is more robust (in its respect for the unknown, the epistemic humility) than the modern post-Enlightenment naïve pseudoscientific autism. Thus my classical values make me advocate the triplet of erudition, elegance, and courage; against modernity’s phoniness, nerdiness and philistinism.
Faylasuf bo‘lishni istasangiz, avvalo juda sekin yurishdan boshlang.
To become a philosopher, start by walking very slowly.
Random House, 2012, ISBN 978-1-4000-6782-4
Men o‘zim anglab yetmagan dunyoda baxtiyor yashashni xohlayman.
I want to live happily in a world I don't understand.
Biz hozirgi mavqeimizga chidamlilik haqidagi zaif tushunchalar tufayli erishganimiz yo‘q.
We didn't get where we are thanks to the sissy notion of resilience.
Soddalikka erishish unchalik oson emas.
Simplicity is not so simple to attain.
Zamonaviylik axloq o‘rnini qonunchilik bilan egalladi.
Modernity has replaced ethics with legalese.
Agar siz firibgarlikni koʻrib turib, uni „firibgarlik“ demasangiz, demak, oʻzingiz ham firibgarsiz.
If you see fraud and do not say fraud, you are a fraud.
Kibrli odamga yaxshilik qilish, yaxshi odamga kibr qilishdan afzal bo‘lmaganidek, yovuzlik qilayotgan kimsaga yon bosish — o‘sha yovuzlikni ma’qullash demakdir.
Just as being nice to the arrogant is no better than being arrogant toward the nice; being accommodating toward anyone committing a nefarious action condones it.
Murosaga borish — yomonlikni maʼqullashdir. Men amal qiladigan yagona zamonaviy hikmat George Santayananiki: „Inson qachonki dunyoni va oʻzga insonlarni murosasiz samimiylik bilan muhokama qilsagina... axloqan ozod boʻladi“. Bu shunchaki maqsad emas, bu — burchdir.
Compromising is condoning. The only modern dictum I follow one by George Santayana: A man is morally free when... he judges the world, and judges other men, with uncompromising sincerity. This is not just an aim but an obligation.
Mo‘rtlik xotirjamlikni istaydi, ziddimo‘rtlik tartibsizlikdan kuch oladi, bardoshlilik esa bunga unchalik parvo qilmaydi.
The fragile wants tranquility, the antifragile grows from disorder, and the robust doesn't care too much.
Hayotning yarmi, ya’ni uning eng qiziqarli qismining hatto nomi ham yo‘q.
Half of life—the interesting half of life—we don't even have a name for.
Aslida, hamma gap ortiqchalikda. Tabiat o‘zini har ehtimolga qarshi sug‘urtalashni yaxshi ko‘radi.
It is all about redundancy. Nature likes to overinsure itself.
Insoniyat oxirgi urushni olib borsa, tabiat keyingisini boshlaydi.
If humans fight the last war, nature fights the next one.
Axborot o‘ta chidamli: uni targ‘ib qilishga qaratilgan sa’y-harakatlardan ko‘ra, unga zarar yetkazishga bo‘lgan urinishlar uni yanada kuchaytiradi.
Information is antifragile; it feeds more on attempts to harm it than it does on efforts to promote it.
Keksayishning asosiy sabablaridan biri – bu qulaylik ta’sirini noto‘g‘ri anglashdir.
Much of aging comes from a misunderstanding of the effect of comfort.
Til o‘rganishning eng yaxshi yo‘li, balki, xorijiy mamlakatdagi qamoqxonada bir muddat o‘tirishdir.
The best way to learn a language may be an episode of jail in a foreign country.
Agar kunim aynan qanday o‘tishini oldindan bila olganimda, o‘zimni biroz o‘likdek his qilardim.
If I could predict what my day would exactly look like, I would feel a little bit dead.
Zamonaviy hayotning aksar jihatlari oldini olsa bo‘ladigan surunkali stress jarohatidir.
Much of modern life is preventable chronic stress injury.
Aksariyat hollarda boshqalarning xatolari bizga naf keltiradi-yu, afsuski, ularning o‘ziga emas... Antimoʻrtlar uchun esa xatolardan ko‘rilgan zarar uning foydasidan kamroq bo‘lishi lozim.
It is often the mistakes of others that benefit the rest of us—and, sadly, not them ... For the antifragile, harm from errors should be less than the benefits.
Hech qachon gunoh qilmagan odamdan ko‘ra bir marta gunoh qilgan odam ishonchliroqdir.
He who has never sinned is less reliable than he who has only sinned once.
Yuqori darajadagi tizimning mo‘rtlikka qarshi chidamliligi quyi pog‘onaning mo‘rtligi va hatto qurbon bo‘lishini taqozo etishi mumkin.
The antifragility of the higher level may require the fragility—and sacrifice—of the lower one.
Shafqatsizlikni takomillashuv dvigateli sifatida tasavvur qilish ko‘pincha og‘riqli bo‘ladi.
It is often painful to think about ruthlessness as an engine of improvement.
Magʻlub askar degan tushunchaning oʻzi yoʻq, u xoh tirik, xoh oʻlik boʻlsin (agar u qoʻrqoqlik qilmagan boʻlsa) — xuddi shuningdek, omadsiz tadbirkor yoki omadsiz ilmiy tadqiqotchi degan narsa ham yoʻq...
There is no such thing as a failed soldier, dead or alive (unless he acted in a cowardly manner)—likewise there is no such thing as a failed entrepreneur or failed scientific researcher ...
Hayotdagi markaziy illuziya mana shunda: tasodifiylikni xavf deb, uni yomon narsa deb oʻylashimiz...
This is the central illusion in life: that randomness is a risk, that it is a bad thing
Tizimga biroz chalkashlik (tartibsizlik) kiritish tizimni barqarorlashtiradi.
Injecting some confusion stabilizes the system.
Baʼzi tizimlar xavfli berk koʻchada qolib ketganida, tasodifiylik va faqat tasodifiylik ularni ochib, ozod qila oladi.
When some systems are stuck in a dangerous impasse, randomness and only randomness can unlock them and set them free.
Tasodifiylik qidiruv tizimlarida yaxshi ishlaydi — baʼzan odamlardan koʻra yaxshiroq.
Randomness works well in search—sometimes better than humans.
Modern zamon hissiyotlarga boy voqealar va chinakam ahamiyatli narsalar oʻrtasidagi masofani uzaytirib yubordi.
Modernity widened the distance between the sensational and the relevant.
Nazariyaga ega boʻlish juda xavfli narsadir.
A theory is a very dangerous thing to have.
Koʻpchilik kechiktirish (prokrastinatsiya) bizning tabiiy mudofaamiz ekanligini, u narsalarning oʻz holicha hal boʻlishiga va oʻz antimoʻrtligini namoyon etishiga imkon berishini tushunmaydi.
Few understand that procrastination is our natural defense, letting things take care of themselves and exercise their antifragility.
Kunlik yangiliklar va shakar bizning tizimimizni xuddi bir xil usulda chalgʻitadi.
Daily news and sugar confuse our system in the same manner.
Nimalar oʻlchovsiz va bashoratsiz boʻlsa, ular shundayligicha qoladi... qanchalik koʻp nafrat toʻla xatlar (tanqidlar) olsam ham.
What is nonmeasurable and nonpredictable will remain nonmeasurable and nonpredictable ... no matter how much hate mail I get.
Inson oʻz fikri uchun qancha shaxsiy xavfni zimmasiga olsa, u shunchalik hurmatga loyiqdir.
A man is honorable in proportion to the personal risks he takes for his opinion.
Mening zamonaviy Stoik donishmand haqidagi tasavvurim — bu qoʻrquvni ehtiyotkorlikka, ogʻriqni maʼlumotga, xatolarni tashabbusga (boshlanishga) va istakni esa amalga oshirishga aylantira oladigan insondir.
My idea of the modern Stoic sage is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into information, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking.
Bizning eng katta boyligimiz — bu biz eng koʻp ishonmaydigan narsadir: ayrim tavakkalchi tizimlarning oʻziga xos antimoʻrtligi.
Our greatest asset is the one we distrust the most: the built-in antifragility of certain risk-taking systems.
Boylikning eng yomon yon taʼsiri bu uning oʻz qurbonlariga majburiy ijtimoiy bogʻliqliklar yuklashidir, chunki katta uylarda yashovchi odamlar oxir-oqibat faqat boshqa katta uylarda yashovchi odamlar bilan muloqot qiladigan boʻlib qolishadi.
The worst side effect of wealth is the social associations it forces on its victims, as people with big houses end up socializing with other people with big houses.
Menimcha, boy boʻlishning (shunchaki mustaqil boʻlishdan koʻra) asosiy foydasi — bu boy odamlarni (ularning yaxshigina konsentratsiyasini dabdabali changʻi kurortlarida uchratasiz) „yashirincha“ mensimaslik imkoniyatidir. Ayniqsa, bu kibrli odamlar sizning ulardan boyroq ekanligingizni bilmasalar, bu tuygʻu yanada yoqimli.
I suppose that the main benefit of being rich (over just being independent) is to be able to despise rich people (a good concentration of whom you find in glitzy ski resorts) without any sour grapes. It is even sweeter when these farts don't know that you are richer than they are.
Tanlov (imkoniyat) oʻzi boʻlishini istamagan joyimizda yashirinadi.
An option hides where we don't want it to hide.
Skin in the Game (2018)
[tahrirlash]Random House, 2018, ISBN 978-0-425-28462-9
Akademik doiralarda akademik doiralar bilan real dunyo oʻrtasida farq yoʻq; real dunyoda esa farq bor.
In academia there is no difference between academia and the real world; in the real world, there is.
Bu hayotdagi simmetriya va oʻzaro mushtaraklikning buzilishi haqida: Agar mukofotlarga ega boʻlsangiz, tavakkalchiliklarning bir qismini ham oʻz zimmangizga olishingiz kerak, xatolaringiz evaziga boshqalarning toʻlqin toʻlashiga yoʻl qoʻymang. ...Agar fikr bildirib, kimdir unga amal qilsa, uning oqibatlariga oʻzingiz ham duchor boʻlishga ma'nan majbursiz.
It is about distortions of symmetry and reciprocity in life: If you have the rewards, you must also get some of the risks, not let others pay the price for your mistakes. ...If you give an opinion and someone follows it, you are morally obligated to be, yourself, exposed to its consequences.
Agar iqtisodiy qarashlaringizni bayon qilayotgan boʻlsangiz: Menga nima „oʻylayotganingizni“ aytmang, shunchaki portfelingizda nima borligini ayting.
In case you are giving economic views: Don't tell me what you "think," just tell me what's in your portfolio.
Biror narsaning nima uchun muhimligini hech qachon batafsil tushuntirmang: tamoyilni cheksiz oqlash uni qadrsizlantiradi.
Never engage in detailed overexplanations of why something is important: one debases a principle by endlessly justifying it.
Siz ziyoli boʻla turib ham ahmoq boʻlishingiz mumkin. „Oʻqimishli savodsizlar“ Stalinizmdan tortib Iroqqacha hamda uglevodsiz parezlargacha boʻlgan hamma narsada adashganlar.
You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot. 'Educated philistines' have been wrong on everything from Stalinism to Iraq to low-carb diets.
Sinov va xatolar, tajriba va vaqtning oʻtishi orqali, boshqacha aytganda, yer bilan aloqa qilish orqali oladigan bilimimiz mantiqiy mulohazalar orqali olinadigan bilimdan behisob ustundir; buni oʻz manfaatini oʻylaydigan muassasalar bizdan qattiq yashirishga urinib kelgan.
The knowledge we get by tinkering, via trial and error, experience, and the workings of time, in other words, contact with the earth, is vastly superior to that obtained through reasoning, something self-serving institutions have been very busy hiding from us.
Byurokratiya – bu inson oʻz harakatlarining oqibatlaridan qulay tarzda ajratib qoʻyiladigan tuzilma.
Bureaucracy is a construction by which a person is conveniently separated from the consequences of his or her actions.
Yashash uchun maslahat beradigan odamdan maslahat olishdan saqlaning, basharti ularning maslahati uchun biron-bir jarima yoki javobgarlik boʻlmasa.
Avoid taking advice from someone who gives advice for a living, unless there is a penalty for their advice.
Psixolog Steven Pinkerning intellektual narsalar haqida fikr bildirishini koʻrish milliy bogʻ qoq oʻrtasida sayr qilib yurib, mashinadan tushmasdan xizmat koʻrsatadigan Burger King shoxobchasiga duch kelish bilan bir xil taassurot qoldiradi.
Seeing the psychologist Steven Pinker making pronouncements about things intellectual has a similar effect to encountering a drive-in Burger King while hiking in the middle of a national park.
Boʻysunishning dalili xodimning har kuni toʻqqiz soat davomida oʻz shaxsiy erkinligidan mahrum boʻlishi, idoraga odatiy va oʻz vaqtida kelishi, oʻz jadvalidan voz kechishi va yomon kundan keyin uyga qaytayotganda hech kimni doʻpposlab tashlamaganida namoyon boʻladi. U itoatkor, qoʻlga oʻrgatilgan uy iti.
Evidence of submission is displayed by the employee’s going through years depriving himself of his personal freedom for nine hours every day, his ritualistic and punctual arrival at an office, his denying himself his own schedule, and his not having beaten up anyone on the way back home after a bad day. He is an obedient, housebroken dog.
2014-yildan 2018-yilgacha Hindistondan tortib Buyuk Britaniya va AQShgacha butun dunyoda kuzatganimiz narsa – bu javobgarlikni zimmasiga olmaydigan siyosatchi „kotiblar“ va jurnalist-amaldorlar doirasiga, yaʼni oddiy xalqqa otalik qiladigan, qandaydir „Ivy League“, „Oxford“-„Cambridge“ yoki shunga oʻxshash muassasa yorligʻiga asoslangan taʼlim olgan, qolganlarimizga 1) nima qilishni, 2) nima yeyishni, 3) qanday gapirishni, 4) qanday oʻylashni va... 5) kimga ovoz berishni oʻrgatib kelayotgan yarim ziyolilar tabaqasiga qarshi isyon edi.
What we saw worldwide from 2014 to 2018, from India to the U.K. to the U.S., was a rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking "clerks" and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy League, Oxford-Cambridge or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think, and… 5) whom to vote for.
Murakkab yechimlarni topish uchun tarbiyalangan, saralangan va shunga yarasha haq oladigan odamlarning soddalashtirilgan yechimlarni joriy etishdan manfaati yoʻq.
People who are bred, selected, and compensated to find complicated solutions do not have an incentive to implement simplified ones.
Agar shaxsiy hayotingiz intellektual qarashlaringizga zid kelsa, bu shaxsiy hayotingizni emas, balki intellektual gʻoyalaringizni bekor qiladi.
If your private life conflicts with your intellectual opinion, it cancels your intellectual ideas, not your private life.
Birinchi navbatda omon qolish muhim, haqiqat, tushunish va ilm-fan esa undan keyin keladi.
Survival comes first, truth, understanding, and science later.